Fortaleza 4-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.53
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 34% vs market 32.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.85
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
10%
5.26
X/2
12%
5.41
X/X
14%
3.98
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
16%
4.01
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.14/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.44
-16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
16.5 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
318 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
22.10.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
03.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
15.02.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-3 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCDN
19.02.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-1 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BRCDN
10.12.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
4-1
AWAY Bahia
1.53 xG 0.44
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
314 Passes 590
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
22 Box Touches 13
5 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza swept aside Bahia 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Fortaleza made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 36% of the ball to Bahia's 64%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.53 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fortaleza and 0.83 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Bahia?

Fortaleza 4-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 38%, draw 27%, Bahia 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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