Vasco da Gama 0-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Sep 2024

Vasco da Gama
0-1 HT 0-1
Palmeiras
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
47%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
12.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.23
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
10%
8.29
X/2
19%
4.15
X/X
7%
5.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.39
2/X
8%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+6.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-4.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.2pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vasco da Gama v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
1.27/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.96
+24% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +102%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
271 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
20.5 Crosses 21.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.58 xG 1.64
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
265 Passes 372
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.06.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
28.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
23.04.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-2 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.01.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
08.11.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
07.11.2019 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1

Vasco da Gama 0-1 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
0-1
AWAY Palmeiras
0.30 xG 1.42
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
326 Passes 269
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Vasco da Gama 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 55% of the ball to Palmeiras's 45%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.30 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.50 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras?

Vasco da Gama 0-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 30%, draw 23%, Palmeiras 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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