North Carolina 4-2 Indy Eleven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.33/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.26
-14% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
15.6 Crosses 18.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Indy Eleven
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
318 Passes 335
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-2 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
22.09.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 2-0 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
04.08.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 1-2 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
05.05.2019 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
16.08.2018 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 3-2 HT 2-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
08.04.2018 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
4-2
AWAY Indy Eleven
0.96 xG 1.51
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
326 Passes 269
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Indy Eleven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina got the better of Indy Eleven 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had North Carolina as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, North Carolina had 52% of the ball to Indy Eleven's 48%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.96 to 1.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Indy Eleven.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Indy Eleven led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for North Carolina and 1.33 for Indy Eleven.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Indy Eleven?

North Carolina 4-2 Indy Eleven in the USL Championship on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Indy Eleven?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 43%, draw 27%, Indy Eleven 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Carolina) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (North Carolina) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
19 Jul 2025
02:00 Detroit City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →
23:15 Rhode Island vs Hartford Athletic Analysis →