North Carolina 2-0 Indy Eleven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
13%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 29%
-13% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.65/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.46
-15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.2 Crosses 17.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Indy Eleven
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
339 Passes 378
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.08.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 1-2 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
05.05.2019 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
16.08.2018 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 3-2 HT 2-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
08.04.2018 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
30.10.2017 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-2 HT 1-1 North Carolina North Carolina ABD - NASL
14.09.2017 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 1-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina ABD - NASL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
2-0
AWAY Indy Eleven
2.48 xG 1.26
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
220 Passes 386
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 38
15 Crosses 35
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Indy Eleven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina saw off Indy Eleven 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had North Carolina as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, North Carolina had 38% of the ball to Indy Eleven's 62%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.48 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Indy Eleven led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for North Carolina and 1.50 for Indy Eleven.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Indy Eleven?

North Carolina 2-0 Indy Eleven in the USL Championship on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Indy Eleven?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 50%, draw 24%, Indy Eleven 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Carolina) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (North Carolina) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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