Las Vegas Lights 2-1 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 22 Sep 2024

Las Vegas Lights
2-1 HT 1-1
Sacramento Republic
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
USL Championship – 2024

Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
12%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Las Vegas Lights v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 40%
-14% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.36/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.22
+16% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.0 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 1.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
285 Passes 401
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.07.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-1 HT 0-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
02.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
30.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
21.08.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-1 HT 2-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
01.05.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-1 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
06.09.2021 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-3 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP

Las Vegas Lights 2-1 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Vegas Lights
2-1
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.80 xG 1.33
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
521 Passes 240
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights squeezed past Sacramento Republic 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Las Vegas Lights found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 64% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 36%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.80 to 1.33 — on chances, Sacramento Republic could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 1.50 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?

Las Vegas Lights 2-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 37%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Las Vegas Lights), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
22 Sep 2024
02:00 Hartford Athletic vs Oakland Roots Analysis →
02:30 Charleston Battery vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Analysis →
02:30 North Carolina vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
02:30 Rhode Island vs FC Tulsa Analysis →
04:00 El Paso Locomotive vs Colorado Springs Analysis →
05:00 Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC Analysis →