Indy Eleven 2-2 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Apr 2025

Indy Eleven
2-2 HT 1-0
North Carolina
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

Indy Eleven vs North Carolina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Indy Eleven v North Carolina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.19/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.08
-8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
22.3 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Indy Eleven vs North Carolina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
3W-2D-1L
AWAY North Carolina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.48 xG 1.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 Passes 348
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.09.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 2-0 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
04.08.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 1-2 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
05.05.2019 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
16.08.2018 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 3-2 HT 2-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
08.04.2018 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
30.10.2017 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-2 HT 1-1 North Carolina North Carolina ABD - NASL

Indy Eleven 2-2 North Carolina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
2-2
AWAY North Carolina
1.70 xG 0.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
215 Passes 231
67% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven and North Carolina couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 49% of the ball to North Carolina's 51%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.70 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Indy Eleven had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Indy Eleven and 1.17 for North Carolina.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs North Carolina?

Indy Eleven 2-2 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 38%, draw 26%, North Carolina 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Indy Eleven)
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