El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.22/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.00
+2% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.4 Crosses 22.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2-1
AWAY Lexington
1.27 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
331 Passes 389
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive squeezed past Lexington 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; El Paso Locomotive found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 46% of the ball to Lexington's 54%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.27 to 1.19.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Lexington?

El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 39%, draw 30%, Lexington 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Paso Locomotive), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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