San Antonio 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 30% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Antonio EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.41/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.60
+3% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
286 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.1 Crosses 16.7
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Antonio
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.40 xG 1.45
52% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
237 Passes 244
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 4-0 HT 2-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
07.07.2024 San Antonio San Antonio 2-1 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
06.08.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 1-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
23.04.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 1-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
08.05.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-0 HT 2-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
03.04.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 0-2 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Antonio
1-2
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.80 xG 1.30
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
334 Passes 175
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
33 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH San Antonio vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising squeezed past San Antonio 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was San Antonio at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Antonio had 63% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 37%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.80 to 1.30 — on chances, San Antonio could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for San Antonio and 2.00 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of San Antonio vs Phoenix Rising?

San Antonio 1-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Antonio vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Antonio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split San Antonio 42%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Antonio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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