Sacramento Republic 1-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +2%
1.44/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.46
+28% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
13.8 Crosses 18.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Louisville City
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
2.46 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
307 Passes 335
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 4-3 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
02.04.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 5-0 HT 3-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
04.09.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 2-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
1-1
AWAY Louisville City
0.40 xG 0.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
252 Passes 254
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic and Louisville City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 49% of the ball to Louisville City's 51%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.40 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Sacramento Republic and 2.33 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Louisville City?

Sacramento Republic 1-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 38%, draw 29%, Louisville City 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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