Louisville City 4-3 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.96/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.30
+21% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +32%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.9 Crosses 16.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.98 xG 2.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
390 Passes 312
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 5-0 HT 3-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
04.09.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 2-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
4-3
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.35 xG 1.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
226 Passes 296
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City nicked a narrow win over Sacramento Republic 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Louisville City had 45% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 55%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.35 to 1.86 — on chances, Sacramento Republic could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Louisville City and 3.00 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic?

Louisville City 4-3 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 48%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 25%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ BTTS Yes
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