Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities
Louisville City v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals
Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Louisville City 4-3 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City nicked a narrow win over Sacramento Republic 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. With 7 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both. The market went further still — the BTTS-no price closed at 1.85, about 54%.
By the numbers, Sacramento Republic saw more of the ball, 55% to 45%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.35 to 1.86 — by the quality of chances, Sacramento Republic deserved more.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Louisville City against 3.00 for Sacramento Republic.
Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic Result & Final Score
Louisville City 4 - 3 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Louisville City vs Sacramento Republic Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 56%, draw 25%, Sacramento Republic 19%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.