El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.45 — our 26% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-13.3pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.4pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.70/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.83
+1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
17.8 Crosses 13.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Miami FC
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.43 xG 1.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
459 Passes 446
90% Pass Accuracy 90%
12 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.08.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-0 HT 2-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2-1
AWAY Miami FC
2.71 xG 0.42
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
505 Passes 235
92% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 5
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive nicked a narrow win over Miami FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had El Paso Locomotive as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 64% of the ball to Miami FC's 36%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 2.71 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Paso Locomotive's control.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Miami FC?

El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 51%, draw 24%, Miami FC 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Paso Locomotive), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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