Monterey Bay 1-2 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.9
Over 2.5
38%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.68
No
60%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.4
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
8%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 36% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
49%
+12.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
51%
-12.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
56%
-15.4pp
60%
BTTS No
44%
+15.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 40%
+12% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.61/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.40
+12% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.7 Crosses 15.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.96 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 17
0 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
380 Passes 356
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 5
09.10.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
1-2
AWAY Birmingham Legion
0.95 xG 0.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
535 Passes 349
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion edged past Monterey Bay 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Birmingham Legion found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 59% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 41%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.95 to 0.72.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?

Monterey Bay 1-2 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 32%, draw 28%, Birmingham Legion 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham Legion) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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