Aveley 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
7%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 28% vs market 23.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.83/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.28
+29% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 3-4 HT 2-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
06.11.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
0-1
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Hemel Hempstead Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town edged past Aveley 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Hemel Hempstead Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Aveley had 46% of the ball to Hemel Hempstead Town's 54%, shots finished 9-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Aveley had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Aveley and 2.00 for Hemel Hempstead Town.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Aveley 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town in the England - Conference on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aveley win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Aveley 39%, draw 25%, Hemel Hempstead Town 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Aveley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aveley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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