Hemel Hempstead Town 3-4 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-0.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 42%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.15/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.34
-14% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aveley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
06.11.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
3-4
AWAY Aveley
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley nicked a narrow win over Hemel Hempstead Town 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Aveley found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 47% of the ball to Aveley's 53%, shots finished 15-17.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Aveley?

Hemel Hempstead Town 3-4 Aveley in the England - Conference on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aveley win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 34%, draw 31%, Aveley 35%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aveley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aveley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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