Buxton 1-4 Chester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.9
No
61%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.42
6+ Goals
7%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 37% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+0.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.4pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Chester EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.20/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.16
-8% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
340 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Chester
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.01.2024 Chester Chester 0-1 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
29.04.2023 Chester Chester 4-0 HT 2-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
24.09.2022 Buxton Buxton 0-0 HT 0-0 Chester Chester İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
1-4
AWAY Chester
51% Ball Possession 49%
4 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Chester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chester ran out comfortable winners over Buxton 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chester as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Buxton had 51% of the ball to Chester's 49%, shots finished 4-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Buxton and 1.33 for Chester.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Chester?

Buxton 1-4 Chester in the England - Conference on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Chester?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Buxton 32%, draw 27%, Chester 41%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chester) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chester) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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