Villarreal 2-2 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
12%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 27% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.93
1/2
8%
24.45
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
10%
7.02
X/2
14%
4.71
X/X
13%
4.87
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.81
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.70/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.05
+42% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +35%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 84%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
16.5 Crosses 14.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 1.84
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
463 Passes 366
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
12.11.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
04.06.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.08.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
09.01.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
29.08.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
2-2
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.79 xG 1.11
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
420 Passes 519
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal and Atletico Madrid shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Villarreal had 45% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 55%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.79 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Villarreal and 1.83 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?

Villarreal 2-2 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 32%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ BTTS No
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