Lecce 0-4 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.78
Over
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.05
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.82
6+
10%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.05 — our 29% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.2
1/2
10%
26.5
1/X
11%
13.65
X/1
6%
6.94
X/2
13%
4.59
X/X
10%
4.38
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.9
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
28%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
44%
Away Win
44%
-0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +18%
1.23/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.97
-9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +36%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
22.8 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Atalanta
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.97 xG 2.27
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
262 Passes 485
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Lecce Lecce 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
30.12.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
19.02.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
09.11.2022 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
01.03.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-7 HT 2-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.10.2019 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 2-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
0-4
AWAY Atalanta
1.58 xG 1.74
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
336 Passes 388
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta swept aside Lecce 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lecce had 47% of the ball to Atalanta's 53%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.58 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lecce and 2.50 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Atalanta?

Lecce 0-4 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lecce 27%, draw 29%, Atalanta 44%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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