Atletico Rafaela 2-3 Almagro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.92
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.36
Over 2.5
33%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.51
No
57%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
48%
-11.4pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.8pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
70%
-3.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
30%
+3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
36%
+6.9pp
57%
BTTS No
64%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Almagro EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.41/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.47
+11% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Rafaela
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Almagro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 5
30.03.2024 Almagro Almagro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
17.04.2022 Almagro Almagro 3-1 HT 3-1 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
28.08.2021 Almagro Almagro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
18.04.2021 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 4-1 HT 0-1 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
02.11.2019 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 3-1 HT 1-0 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
07.03.2019 Almagro Almagro 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJK
POST-MATCH Atletico Rafaela vs Almagro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almagro nicked a narrow win over Atletico Rafaela 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 34% / 29% — and on the day Almagro made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almagro led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Rafaela and 1.33 for Almagro.

What was the final score of Atletico Rafaela vs Almagro?

Atletico Rafaela 2-3 Almagro in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Rafaela vs Almagro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Rafaela win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico Rafaela 37%, draw 34%, Almagro 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Rafaela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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