Almagro 1-0 Atletico Rafaela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.44
Over 2.5
33%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.1pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.8pp
67%
Under 2.5
66%
+1.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
34%
-1.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.7pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almagro EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
0.85/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/0.47
-25% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +112%
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
213 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almagro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Rafaela
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 1
17.04.2022 Almagro Almagro 3-1 HT 3-1 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
28.08.2021 Almagro Almagro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
18.04.2021 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 4-1 HT 0-1 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
02.11.2019 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 3-1 HT 1-0 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
07.03.2019 Almagro Almagro 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJK
07.06.2017 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-0 HT 0-0 Almagro Almagro ARJK
POST-MATCH Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almagro edged past Atletico Rafaela 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Almagro made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Rafaela led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Almagro and 1.67 for Atletico Rafaela.

What was the final score of Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela?

Almagro 1-0 Atletico Rafaela in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almagro win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Almagro 38%, draw 30%, Atletico Rafaela 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almagro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almagro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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