Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.66
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 29% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
23%
3.98
X/2
5%
9.43
X/X
8%
5.31
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
12%
7.18
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
56%
+3.0pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.6pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.2pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.58/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.36
+11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
22.7 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Juventude
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.45 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
306 Passes 336
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2024 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
02.10.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
09.06.2022 Juventude Juventude 1-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
19.09.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
07.06.2021 Juventude Juventude 0-3 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
13.10.2007 Juventude Juventude 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-2
AWAY Juventude
1.66 xG 1.13
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
389 Passes 222
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude edged past Atletico Paranaense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Atletico Paranaense at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 60% of the ball to Juventude's 40%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.66 to 1.13 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Paranaense.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.50 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?

Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 59%, draw 20%, Juventude 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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