Tijuana 3-1 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒03:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.47
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.47 — our 27% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-7.8pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 19%
-15% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -22%
1.56/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.84
-22% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
373 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.0 Crosses 13.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.97 xG 1.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
284 Passes 322
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-2 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
05.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.03.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
26.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 0-2 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
14.03.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 4-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
11.09.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
3-1
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.37 xG 1.35
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
537 Passes 166
90% Pass Accuracy 68%
34 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana beat Santos Laguna 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Tijuana had 71% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 29%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.37 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos Laguna led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tijuana and 2.33 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

Tijuana 3-1 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 56%, draw 22%, Santos Laguna 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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