CA River Plate 3-3 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.71
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
52%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 62%
+14% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.06/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/0.85
+20% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
251 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA River Plate
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Nacional de Football
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
05.11.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
27.03.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
17.09.2022 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
18.04.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
04.12.2021 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 4-2 HT 1-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA River Plate
3-3
AWAY Nacional de Football
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA River Plate vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA River Plate and Nacional de Football shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional de Football at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, CA River Plate had 38% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 62%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CA River Plate and 2.33 for Nacional de Football.

What was the final score of CA River Plate vs Nacional de Football?

CA River Plate 3-3 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA River Plate vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split CA River Plate 22%, draw 26%, Nacional de Football 52%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nacional de Football), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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