Esbjerg 1-0 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 19 Aug 2025

📅19/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.13
2-3 Goals
33%
1.94
4-5 Goals
29%
2.51
6+ Goals
13%
5.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.16
1/2
8%
23.65
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
17%
5.73
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
6.37
X/X
13%
5.93
2/1
7%
21.95
2/2
14%
3.72
2/X
5%
12.4
Value flag · X/2 at 6.37 — our 19% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
40%
Away Win
35%
+5.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.4pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.63/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.51
+14% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.0 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Aalborg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.85 xG 2.09
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
321 Passes 365
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-2 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
19.08.2020 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 2-0 Aalborg Aalborg HAZ
31.05.2020 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-1 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
11.08.2019 Aalborg Aalborg 4-0 HT 4-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
30.11.2018 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-4 HT 0-2 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
27.08.2018 Aalborg Aalborg 0-1 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
1-0
AWAY Aalborg
1.16 xG 1.29
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 10
283 Passes 434
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
41 Box Touches 31
23 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg nicked a narrow win over Aalborg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Esbjerg found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Esbjerg had 42% of the ball to Aalborg's 58%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.16 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aalborg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Esbjerg and 2.00 for Aalborg.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs Aalborg?

Esbjerg 1-0 Aalborg in the Denmark 1st Division on 19/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 35%, draw 25%, Aalborg 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aalborg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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