Botafogo 0-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 19 Sep 2024

Botafogo
0-0 HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
📅19/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

Botafogo vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.52
6+ Goals
10%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 34% vs market 32.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.85
X/1
22%
3.88
X/2
10%
7.54
X/X
14%
4.23
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
8%
6.48
2/X
8%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 27%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -25%
0.69/0.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.02
+35% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
11.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
12.0 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Botafogo vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.22 xG 1.16
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
234 Passes 474
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
25.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
19.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.04.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
09.10.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.06.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
23.02.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Botafogo 0-0 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
0-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.73 xG 0.65
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
461 Passes 235
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Sao Paulo played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Botafogo had 63% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 37%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 1.73 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Botafogo and 0.50 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?

Botafogo 0-0 Sao Paulo in the Copa Libertadores on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 45%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 25%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Botafogo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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