Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.33
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.03
No
63%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
42%
2.31
2-3 Goals
32%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.28
6+ Goals
8%
33.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.31 — our 42% vs market 36.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.58
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
13%
4.84
X/2
8%
5.85
X/X
15%
3.64
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
12%
4.67
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+4.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.7pp
63%
BTTS No
55%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -25%
3.00/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/0.89
+150% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
16.9 Crosses 14.6
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
348 Passes 332
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.05.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
29.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
22.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
01.10.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
09.06.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 5-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.67 xG 0.55
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
437 Passes 417
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense edged past Atletico Mineiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Fluminense had 51% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 49%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.67 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fluminense and 1.67 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Copa Libertadores on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 44%, draw 30%, Atletico Mineiro 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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