Sao Paulo 2-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.13
No
66%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
13%
5.81
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.16 — our 42% vs market 39.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.23
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
16%
4.47
X/2
9%
6.59
X/X
18%
3.45
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
10%
5.6
2/X
7%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.8pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.7pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.7pp
34%
BTTS Yes
43%
-8.6pp
66%
BTTS No
57%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.14/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.28
+0% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.1 Crosses 16.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Botafogo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 1.12
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
483 Passes 247
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.04.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
09.10.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.06.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
23.02.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
10.12.2020 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4-0 HT 3-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-2
AWAY Botafogo
2.03 xG 1.71
69% Ball Possession 31%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 1
530 Passes 204
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo and Botafogo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 69% of the ball to Botafogo's 31%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.03 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.83 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?

Sao Paulo 2-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 41%, draw 30%, Botafogo 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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