Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.56
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.6
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.48
1/2
9%
31.5
1/X
12%
13.75
X/1
14%
5.87
X/2
10%
4.96
X/X
10%
3.89
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.52
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.8pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 42%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.01/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.33
-12% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.6 Crosses 20.6
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 1.23
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
422 Passes 313
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
06.08.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.05.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
15.11.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
25.07.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Palmeiras
0.95 xG 0.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
373 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 4
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Palmeiras 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Fluminense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fluminense had 50% of the ball to Palmeiras's 50%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 0.95 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Palmeiras?

Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 35%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Palmeiras) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
25 Jul 2024
01:00 Criciuma vs Fortaleza Analysis →
01:00 Cruzeiro vs Juventude Analysis →
01:30 Sao Paulo vs Botafogo Analysis →
02:00 Vitoria vs Flamengo Analysis →
03:30 Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia Analysis →