Cruzeiro 2-0 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.47
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.69
6+ Goals
11%
15.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.05
X/1
20%
3.51
X/2
5%
13.3
X/X
10%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
11.45
2/X
8%
19.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
64%
-4.0pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.2pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 17%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.34/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.64
-16% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
24.6 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Juventude
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
410 Passes 260
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
17.01.2021 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
17.10.2020 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
06.09.2007 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
11.06.2007 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-3 HT 1-2 Juventude Juventude BR1
11.09.2006 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 2-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
08.05.2006 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-0
AWAY Juventude
2.47 xG 0.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
359 Passes 273
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro got the better of Juventude 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 55% of the ball to Juventude's 45%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 2.47 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventude led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.17 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Juventude?

Cruzeiro 2-0 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 60%, draw 22%, Juventude 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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