Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Jul 2024

Atletico Goianiense
1-1 HT 0-0
Bahia
📅25/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 30% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Goianiense v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.37/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.50
-11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.7 Crosses 19.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.09 xG 1.09
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
281 Passes 364
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.11.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
16.08.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
11.01.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
14.09.2020 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
12.09.2017 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
06.06.2017 Bahia Bahia 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1

Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1-1
AWAY Bahia
1.07 xG 0.85
29% Ball Possession 71%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
153 Passes 500
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 12
29 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Goianiense and Bahia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 29% of the ball to Bahia's 71%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.07 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Goianiense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.17 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?

Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 38%, draw 26%, Bahia 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Goianiense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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