Bolton Wanderers 2-1 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.98
4-5 Goals
21%
2.7
6+ Goals
13%
6.74
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.28 — our 26% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.59
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.35
X/1
14%
3.65
X/2
5%
16.4
X/X
9%
7.61
2/1
6%
20.75
2/2
10%
12.0
2/X
6%
19.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
70%
-12.8pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.7pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +20%
1.92/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.75
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
424 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 68%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.8 Crosses 13.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Burton Albion
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.31
63% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
342 Passes 152
74% Pass Accuracy 57%
36 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2024 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
26.08.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
18.04.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
25.10.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
15.02.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-1 HT 3-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
06.09.2021 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
2-1
AWAY Burton Albion
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
379 Passes 274
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers edged past Burton Albion 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bolton Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 55% of the ball to Burton Albion's 45%, shots finished 18-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.00 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Burton Albion?

Bolton Wanderers 2-1 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 57%, draw 22%, Burton Albion 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolton Wanderers), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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