River Plate 1-1 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.96
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.93
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
10%
4.24
X/2
14%
6.89
X/X
14%
3.9
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
11%
5.75
2/X
5%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+2.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-2.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.52/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.11
-1% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
283 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
18.8 Crosses 16.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.33
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
386 Passes 229
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.02.2024 River Plate River Plate 5-0 HT 4-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
03.09.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-0 HT 1-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
30.05.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
18.07.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-2 HT 1-2 River Plate River Plate ARJ
07.07.2022 River Plate River Plate 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield LKU
30.06.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-0 HT 1-0 River Plate River Plate LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
1-1
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
67% Ball Possession 33%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
470 Passes 194
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
POST-MATCH River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate and Velez Sarsfield couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was River Plate at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, River Plate had 67% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 33%, shots finished 11-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for River Plate and 1.17 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?

River Plate 1-1 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Premier League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split River Plate 42%, draw 28%, Velez Sarsfield 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (River Plate), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (River Plate) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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