Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 19 Oct 2024

Newcastle Jets
0-1
Melbourne City
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
14%
7.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.25
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
11%
6.77
X/2
10%
5.15
X/X
9%
5.46
2/1 EV+
6%
28.5
2/2
22%
2.92
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 48%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -23%
1.13/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.62
-20% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
19.7 Crosses 18.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.89 xG 1.72
46% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
353 Passes 421
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
03.12.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
02.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
12.11.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
18.02.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.02.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-4 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
0-1
AWAY Melbourne City
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
387 Passes 358
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City squeezed past Newcastle Jets 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Melbourne City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 53% of the ball to Melbourne City's 47%, shots finished 14-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newcastle Jets and 2.00 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City?

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 38%, draw 23%, Melbourne City 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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