Lommel United 1-1 AS Eupen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+8.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lommel United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Eupen EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.40/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.77
+9% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +40%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
15.8 Crosses 13.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lommel United
1-1
AWAY AS Eupen
2.36 xG 0.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 0
482 Passes 325
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 7
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lommel United vs AS Eupen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United and AS Eupen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lommel United had 59% of the ball to AS Eupen's 41%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.36 to 0.72.

What was the final score of Lommel United vs AS Eupen?

Lommel United 1-1 AS Eupen in the Belgium - 1st Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lommel United vs AS Eupen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lommel United 39%, draw 24%, AS Eupen 37%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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