Naftan Novopolotsk 0-4 Vitebsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.19
6+ Goals
9%
20.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 33% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
21%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-1.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.03/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.32
-13% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitebsk
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2024 Vitebsk Vitebsk 2-0 HT 2-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
09.02.2018 Vitebsk Vitebsk 0-5 HT 0-2 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk HAZ
16.08.2015 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
26.04.2015 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-3 HT 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
0-4
AWAY Vitebsk
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Vitebsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitebsk cruised past Naftan Novopolotsk 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitebsk as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 46% of the ball to Vitebsk's 54%, shots finished 13-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Naftan Novopolotsk had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 0.75 for Vitebsk.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Vitebsk?

Naftan Novopolotsk 0-4 Vitebsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Vitebsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 28%, draw 30%, Vitebsk 42%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitebsk), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitebsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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