Orense 1-0 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.33
No
55%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
39%
+5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
61%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -8%
1.27/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.66
-19% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -25%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 71%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
22.6 Crosses 11.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Libertad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.15 xG 0.89
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
280 Passes 230
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
01.10.2023 Orense Orense 3-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
1-0
AWAY Libertad
0.96 xG 0.34
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
349 Passes 216
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orense vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense edged past Libertad 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Orense had 59% of the ball to Libertad's 41%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.96 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Orense had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Orense and 0.33 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Orense vs Libertad?

Orense 1-0 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Orense 51%, draw 28%, Libertad 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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