Orlando Pirates 2-3 Magesi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - League Cup, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.29
Draw
27%
4.62
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.71
Over 2.5
55%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.95
No
55%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
4.19
6+ Goals
10%
20.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.19 — our 26% vs market 18.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
12%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
74%
-16.9pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.3pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+8.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
30%
+15.0pp
55%
BTTS No
70%
-15.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Magesi EU Bookmakers 9%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-54% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
454 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando Pirates
2-3
AWAY Magesi
68% Ball Possession 32%
28 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Orlando Pirates vs Magesi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Magesi edged past Orlando Pirates 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Orlando Pirates at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Orlando Pirates had 68% of the ball to Magesi's 32%, shots finished 28-4.

What was the final score of Orlando Pirates vs Magesi?

Orlando Pirates 2-3 Magesi in the South Afrika - League Cup on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando Pirates vs Magesi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando Pirates win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Orlando Pirates 57%, draw 27%, Magesi 16%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Orlando Pirates), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando Pirates) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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