Mamelodi Sundowns 5-0 Golden Arrows — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - League Cup, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.53
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.03
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.87
6+ Goals
7%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
19%
+6.3pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+5.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Golden Arrows EU Bookmakers 12%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
458 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Golden Arrows
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.82 xG 0.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
468 Passes 239
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.05.2024 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
15.08.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 3-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
10.09.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 1-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
12.04.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 6-0 HT 3-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
20.10.2021 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows 0-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
28.09.2021 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 HT 2-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
5-0
AWAY Golden Arrows
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns cruised past Golden Arrows 5-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 59% of the ball to Golden Arrows's 41%, shots finished 20-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.17 for Golden Arrows.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows?

Mamelodi Sundowns 5-0 Golden Arrows in the South Afrika - League Cup on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 60%, draw 26%, Golden Arrows 15%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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