Sibenik 1-3 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 19 Oct 2024

Sibenik
1-3 HT 1-1
Osijek
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

Sibenik vs Osijek Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.08
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.74
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.26
6+ Goals
7%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 34% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
29%
-2.0pp
33%
Draw
29%
+3.9pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sibenik v Osijek — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sibenik EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 46%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.24/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.34
-27% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
16.5 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sibenik vs Osijek Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sibenik
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Osijek
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.58 xG 1.52
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
226 Passes 386
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.08.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
19.05.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 1-4 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
13.11.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.09.2022 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
20.03.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-3 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR

Sibenik 1-3 Osijek — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sibenik
1-3
AWAY Osijek
0.82 xG 2.78
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
227 Passes 335
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sibenik vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek saw off Sibenik 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Osijek as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sibenik had 43% of the ball to Osijek's 57%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.82 to 2.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sibenik and 1.83 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Sibenik vs Osijek?

Sibenik 1-3 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sibenik vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sibenik 27%, draw 33%, Osijek 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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