Nairobi City Stars 1-1 Sofapaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
30%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
3%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.2pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
30%
Away Win
37%
-6.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nairobi City Stars EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+68% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
235 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nairobi City Stars
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Sofapaka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
30.09.2023 Sofapaka Sofapaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars KEN
26.09.2021 Sofapaka Sofapaka 3-1 HT 1-0 Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nairobi City Stars
1-1
AWAY Sofapaka
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Nairobi City Stars vs Sofapaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi City Stars and Sofapaka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 30%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nairobi City Stars had 48% of the ball to Sofapaka's 52%, shots finished 5-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nairobi City Stars and 2.00 for Sofapaka.

What was the final score of Nairobi City Stars vs Sofapaka?

Nairobi City Stars 1-1 Sofapaka in the Kenya - Premier League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nairobi City Stars vs Sofapaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nairobi City Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nairobi City Stars 38%, draw 31%, Sofapaka 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nairobi City Stars), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nairobi City Stars) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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