Motor Lublin 3-4 Widzew Lodz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.68
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
11%
5.59
X/2
9%
5.65
X/X
12%
4.59
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.73
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 39%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.33/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.24
-24% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +56%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
29.8 Crosses 23.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Widzew Lodz
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
29.06.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-2 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
3-4
AWAY Widzew Lodz
1.79 xG 1.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
347 Passes 474
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Widzew Lodz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Widzew Lodz nicked a narrow win over Motor Lublin 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Widzew Lodz made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 44% of the ball to Widzew Lodz's 56%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.79 to 1.23 — the balance of chances actually favoured Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Widzew Lodz?

Motor Lublin 3-4 Widzew Lodz in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Widzew Lodz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 38%, draw 27%, Widzew Lodz 34%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
19 Oct 2024
00:00 Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Analysis →
21:15 Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan Analysis →