Belenenses 1-2 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.4pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Belenenses EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 45%
+49% / +49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -57% / -57%
2.99/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
+118% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -54%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Belenenses
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Estoril
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.08 xG 1.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 354
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Estoril Estoril 5-1 HT 1-0 Belenenses Belenenses PRLK
24.04.2022 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 2-0 Belenenses Belenenses POR
12.12.2021 Belenenses Belenenses 0-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
17.02.2018 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-1 Belenenses Belenenses POR
17.09.2017 Belenenses Belenenses 2-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
02.08.2017 Belenenses Belenenses 0-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Belenenses
1-2
AWAY Estoril
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Belenenses vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril squeezed past Belenenses 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Estoril made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Belenenses had 43% of the ball to Estoril's 57%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Belenenses and 1.67 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Belenenses vs Estoril?

Belenenses 1-2 Estoril in the Portugal - Cup on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Belenenses vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Belenenses 36%, draw 26%, Estoril 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estoril), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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