Vila Real 1-5 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 19 Oct 2025

Vila Real
1-5 HT 1-2
Tondela
📅19/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2025/2026

Vila Real vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.71
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.9
No
40%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
54%
Away Win
58%
-4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
49%
+11.3pp
40%
BTTS No
51%
-11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Real v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Real EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 62%
+70% / +70% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.77
-23% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +20%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.3

Vila Real 1-5 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Real
1-5
AWAY Tondela
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vila Real vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela swept aside Vila Real 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Vila Real had 58% of the ball to Tondela's 42%, shots finished 16-13.

What was the final score of Vila Real vs Tondela?

Vila Real 1-5 Tondela in the Portugal - Cup on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Real vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Vila Real 20%, draw 27%, Tondela 54%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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