Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 19 Dec 2024

Tottenham
4-3 HT 1-0
Manchester United
📅19/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Tottenham vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
40%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.63
Over
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.39
No Pick
52%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
26%
6.16
2-3
40%
2.06
4-5
23%
2.46
6+
11%
5.18
Value flag · 0-1 at 6.16 — our 26% vs market 11.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.87
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
5%
12.05
X/1
11%
5.56
X/2
10%
7.17
X/X
11%
6.06
2/1
5%
21.7
2/2
23%
4.09
2/X
8%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-7.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
39%
Away Win
32%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
68%
-19.8pp
52%
BTTS No
32%
+19.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tottenham v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 36%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.04/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.97
+29% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
8.5 Crosses 8.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Tottenham vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Manchester United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
461 Passes 381
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 30
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
14.01.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 2-2 HT 2-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
19.08.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 2-0 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
27.04.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 2-2 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
19.10.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 2-0 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
12.03.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-2 HT 2-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP

Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
4-3
AWAY Manchester United
0.82 xG 2.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
343 Passes 400
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 41
4 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham nicked a narrow win over Manchester United 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Tottenham found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Tottenham had 46% of the ball to Manchester United's 54%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 0.82 to 2.56 — on chances, Manchester United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tottenham and 1.50 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Manchester United?

Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United in the England - League Cup on 19/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 36%, draw 24%, Manchester United 39%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Manchester United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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