Deportes Tolima 1-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 19 Dec 2024

📅19/12/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.2pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.11/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.05
+12% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
17.0 Crosses 14.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.15 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
342 Passes 332
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.11.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
28.04.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
09.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-3 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
24.07.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.06.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
23.06.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.64 xG 0.52
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
441 Passes 219
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima and Atletico Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 65% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 35%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.64 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportes Tolima 1-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 19/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 41%, draw 29%, Atletico Nacional 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportes Tolima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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