Newport County 1-0 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Jan 2024

Newport County
1-0 HT 1-0
Wrexham
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 26% vs market 20.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.57
1/2
6%
22.6
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
10%
7.8
X/2
14%
4.36
X/X
8%
5.23
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.48
2/X
8%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+6.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-5.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 54%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.51/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.56
-3% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 80%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
19.2 Crosses 23.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Newport County vs Wrexham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Wrexham
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.07 xG 1.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
170 Passes 266
56% Pass Accuracy 64%
16 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 2-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
11.12.2018 Newport County Newport County 4-0 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham FAK
01.12.2018 Wrexham Wrexham 0-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County FAK
05.05.2013 Wrexham Wrexham 0-2 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İBSL
04.01.2013 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-1 Wrexham Wrexham İBSL
01.09.2012 Wrexham Wrexham 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İBSL

Newport County 1-0 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-0
AWAY Wrexham
1.06 xG 0.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
255 Passes 185
67% Pass Accuracy 57%
24 Box Touches 5
25 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County squeezed past Wrexham 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Wrexham at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Newport County had 55% of the ball to Wrexham's 45%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.06 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Newport County and 0.83 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Wrexham?

Newport County 1-0 Wrexham in the England - 2nd Division on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newport County 32%, draw 24%, Wrexham 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Wrexham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wrexham) ✓ BTTS No
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