Dorchester Town 3-2 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
16%
3.72
Away
55%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
24%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.9pp
16%
Draw
24%
-7.4pp
55%
Away Win
49%
+5.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.2pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dorchester Town EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 53%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.11/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/0.94
-16% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +30%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
242 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dorchester Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Merthyr Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
07.10.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 3-1 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town FAK
05.08.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 3-2 HT 0-1 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town İNGNLP
25.03.2023 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
25.10.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-3 HT 0-2 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town İNGNLP
05.03.2022 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town 1-3 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
09.11.2021 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Dorchester Town vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dorchester Town nicked a narrow win over Merthyr Town 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Merthyr Town carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Merthyr Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dorchester Town and 2.17 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Dorchester Town vs Merthyr Town?

Dorchester Town 3-2 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dorchester Town vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Dorchester Town 29%, draw 16%, Merthyr Town 55%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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