Morpeth Town 3-3 Ashton United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.8pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashton United EU Bookmakers 34%
+13% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -3%
2.02/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.87
+21% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morpeth Town
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Ashton United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.10.2023 Ashton United Ashton United 4-3 HT 2-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
04.02.2023 Ashton United Ashton United 1-0 HT 1-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
13.09.2022 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Ashton United Ashton United İNGNLP
26.03.2022 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Ashton United Ashton United İNGNLP
11.01.2022 Ashton United Ashton United 1-2 HT 0-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Morpeth Town vs Ashton United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morpeth Town and Ashton United couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Morpeth Town at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Morpeth Town had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Morpeth Town and 1.40 for Ashton United.

What was the final score of Morpeth Town vs Ashton United?

Morpeth Town 3-3 Ashton United in the England - Non League Premier on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morpeth Town vs Ashton United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morpeth Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Morpeth Town 47%, draw 26%, Ashton United 27%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Morpeth Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Morpeth Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNGNLP More England - Non League Premier
20 Jan 2024
18:00 Bracknell Town vs Gosport Borough Analysis →
18:00 AFC Totton vs Harrow Borough Analysis →
18:00 Redditch United vs Bromsgrove Sporting Analysis →
18:00 Hashtag United vs Enfield Town Analysis →
18:00 Walton & Hersham vs Winchester City Analysis →
18:00 Hyde United vs Bradford Park Avenue Analysis →