BFA 2-3 FK Dainava Alytus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFA EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
428 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFA
0W-0D-2L
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
21.08.2022 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 5-1 HT 3-0 BFA BFA LIT1
15.07.2020 BFA BFA 1-2 HT 1-1 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LITK
POST-MATCH BFA vs FK Dainava Alytus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Dainava Alytus squeezed past BFA 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was BFA at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, FK Dainava Alytus led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for BFA and 3.50 for FK Dainava Alytus.

What was the final score of BFA vs FK Dainava Alytus?

BFA 2-3 FK Dainava Alytus in the Friendlies on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFA vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split BFA 52%, draw 22%, FK Dainava Alytus 26%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (BFA) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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