20/01/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
0-2
Toluca U23 vs Mazatlan U23 Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
32%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
14%
23%
Draw
20%
51%
Away Win
66%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca U23 v Mazatlan U23 — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Toluca U23
EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY
Mazatlan U23
EU Bookmakers 70%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
43%
Ball Possession
57%
8
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Target
5
3
Corners
6
279 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
502 · 85%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Toluca U23 vs Mazatlan U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Toluca U23 saw off Mazatlan U23 2-0.
Our pre-match lean was Mazatlan U23 at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
What was the final score of Toluca U23 vs Mazatlan U23?
Toluca U23 2-0 Mazatlan U23 in the Mexico - Primera A on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca U23 vs Mazatlan U23?
Before kick-off our model rated an Mazatlan U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Toluca U23 26%, draw 23%, Mazatlan U23 51%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Mazatlan U23) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Mazatlan U23)
✓ BTTS No
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MEK2
More Mexico - Primera A
20 Jan 2024