Casa Pia 1-3 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
22.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.11
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
20%
4.65
X/2
11%
6.51
X/X
13%
3.98
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
10%
5.02
2/X
5%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -6%
1.25/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.23
-25% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.6 Crosses 21.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.36 xG 0.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
256 Passes 374
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
12.08.2023 Farense Farense 0-3 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
09.04.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2
26.11.2021 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
19.11.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-1 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POK
26.01.2020 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-2 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-3
AWAY Farense
0.95 xG 1.36
65% Ball Possession 35%
24 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
14 Corners 3
446 Passes 215
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 6
43 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense beat Casa Pia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Casa Pia at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casa Pia had 65% of the ball to Farense's 35%, shots finished 24-7, expected goals 0.95 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Casa Pia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Casa Pia and 0.60 for Farense.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Farense?

Casa Pia 1-3 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 47%, draw 27%, Farense 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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